Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.064671 0.074239 0.085052 0.098241 0.113979 0.132261 0.155257
2025-11-23 0.051407 0.063305 0.077961 0.097561 0.123426 0.156873 0.204196
2025-11-30 0.042862 0.056090 0.073661 0.099202 0.136231 0.189345 0.273931
2025-12-07 0.036133 0.049908 0.069494 0.100251 0.149027 0.226517 0.365866
2025-12-14 0.029981 0.043389 0.063619 0.097664 0.156304 0.258974 0.467192
2025-12-21 0.024026 0.036104 0.055237 0.089346 0.152395 0.272634 0.544804
2025-12-28 0.020906 0.032684 0.052328 0.089605 0.164121 0.320790 0.724839
2026-01-04 0.018686 0.030348 0.050799 0.092094 0.181490 0.389740 1.009622
2026-01-11 0.016603 0.027893 0.048601 0.092857 0.196094 0.461653 1.375769
2026-01-18 0.014824 0.025687 0.046455 0.093272 0.210618 0.543666 1.877279
2026-01-25 0.013052 0.023211 0.043328 0.090807 0.217568 0.610832 2.428637
2026-02-01 0.011423 0.020767 0.039835 0.086666 0.218870 0.663528 3.018895
2026-02-08 0.010402 0.019411 0.038471 0.087601 0.236214 0.790254 4.313163
2026-02-15 0.009472 0.018105 0.036986 0.087909 0.252475 0.931665 6.161980
2026-02-22 0.008780 0.017198 0.036248 0.090116 0.276917 1.139363 9.460917
2026-03-01 0.008134 0.016294 0.035351 0.091686 0.300702 1.379326 14.618824
2026-03-08 0.007396 0.015082 0.033486 0.089870 0.311002 1.565019 20.725043
2026-03-15 0.006508 0.013410 0.030190 0.082716 0.295828 1.577924 24.223910
2026-03-22 0.006062 0.012718 0.029319 0.083262 0.315564 1.870071 38.141964
2026-03-29 0.005740 0.012279 0.029046 0.085802 0.347060 2.324726 68.078289
2026-04-05 0.005390 0.011723 0.028358 0.086721 0.371851 2.791482 118.587612
2026-04-12 0.005062 0.011182 0.027622 0.087284 0.395934 3.330870 213.808303
2026-04-19 0.004686 0.010471 0.026279 0.085151 0.403549 3.720092 344.653897